在庆祝我国提出碳达峰碳中和目标四周年之际，厦门大学“碳中和发展力”研究团队与江南大学国家安全与绿色发展研究院携手，发布了2024年中国碳中和发展力指数。这一更新版的指数继续追踪各地区在“双碳”政策部署和低碳转型实践中的新进展与成效。
作为国内评估地区碳中和发展力的指标体系，该指数已连续四年发布。它将地方碳中和发展力细化为成长力、转型力、竞争力、协调力和持续力五个维度，并辅以地方碳中和政策行动的辅助分析，形成了一套系统性、整体性、创新性的“五+N”评价体系，全面反映各地碳中和发展的关键支撑与主要动力。
2024年，我国31个省、自治区、直辖市的碳中和发展力指数整体呈现稳中求进的态势，超过七成的省份实现了稳步增长，平均增幅为1.47分。城市层面的碳中和发展力指数平均得分为52.51分，较2023年增长了3.43分，显示出整体的跃升。华东、华南、华中地区连续四年保持前列，显示出明显的优势。
在“五力”结构提质优化方面，2024年碳中和竞争力、协调力、持续力保持稳定，而成长力与转型力相较2023年分别提升了0.39分和0.55分。这表明我国在碳中和进程中坚持“先立后破”的策略，优先强化持续力这一动能，确保其在碳中和发展力中发挥主导作用。
省份层面，浙江、广东、北京、江苏和上海为例前茅，各具特色的“五力”发展。城市层面，杭州、深圳、南京、长沙和广州等城市的碳中和发展力表现突出。
厦门大学“碳中和发展力”研究团队经济学家孙传旺教授指出，在国内范围内“双碳”工作全面加速的背景下，在碳市场将迎来扩容，源网荷储能源革命取得新突破，多省市展现强劲增长势头，经济社会发展全面绿色转型的步伐加快，绿色发展动能显著增强。
然而，我国碳中和发展力的不平衡、不充分问题仍然突出。梯次发展格局明显，区间区内差距仍存，部分省市动能不足。孙传旺教授强调，实现碳达峰碳中和的过程中，必须平衡发展与减排的双赢关系，确保短期成效与长期目标的紧密衔接，高度重视碳达峰碳中和工作的战略优先级与效率效益。
On the occasion of the fourth anniversary of China's proposal of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the "Carbon Neutrality Development Capability" research team of Xiamen University, together with the Institute of National Security and Green Development of Jiangnan University, released the 2024 China Carbon Neutrality Development Index. This updated index continues to track the latest progress and results of regions across the country in deploying the "dual carbon" policies and practising low-carbon transition.
As China's first indicator system for evaluating regional carbon neutrality development capability, the index has been released for four consecutive years. It breaks down local carbon neutrality development capability into five dimensions - growth, transition, competitiveness, coordination and sustainability - supplemented by analysis of local carbon neutrality policy actions, forming a systematic, holistic and innovative "Five + N" evaluation system that fully reflects the key pillars and main drivers of carbon neutrality development in each region.
In 2024, the carbon neutrality development capability index of China's 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities showed an overall trend of steady progress; more than 70% of provinces achieved steady growth, with an average increase of 1.47 points. At the city level, the average score was 52.51 points, up 3.43 points from 2023, indicating an overall leap. East China, South China and Central China remained in the leading group for four consecutive years, showing a clear advantage.
In terms of improving the quality of the "five forces" structure, in 2024 carbon neutrality competitiveness, coordination and sustainability remained stable, while growth and transition improved by 0.39 and 0.55 points respectively compared with 2023. This shows that China adheres to the strategy of "establishing the new before abolishing the old" in its carbon neutrality process, prioritising the strengthening of sustainability as a driving force to ensure it plays a leading role in carbon neutrality development capability.
At the provincial level, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing, Jiangsu and Shanghai lead the way, each with distinctive "five forces" development. At the city level, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Changsha and Guangzhou perform prominently.
Professor Sun Chuanwang, an economist on the "Carbon Neutrality Development Capability" research team of Xiamen University, pointed out that as "dual carbon" work accelerates across the country, the carbon market will expand, the energy revolution of generation-grid-load-storage will achieve new breakthroughs, many provinces and cities will show strong growth momentum, the pace of comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development will quicken, and the momentum for green development will be significantly enhanced.
However, the problems of unbalanced and inadequate carbon neutrality development capability in China remain prominent. The pattern of tiered development is obvious, gaps within and between regions persist, and some provinces and cities lack sufficient momentum. Professor Sun stressed that in the process of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, it is necessary to balance the win-win relationship between development and emission reduction, ensure close alignment between short-term results and long-term goals, and attach great importance to the strategic priority, efficiency and effectiveness of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality work.
